A pharmaceutical company launched their drug in the market, they projected x patients uptake on their drug. However, number of patients taking their product exceeded their projections leaving their forecasting model flawed. The flaws were evident with limitations in duration of the forecast and missing multiple scenarios. The forecast model was for five years leaving out the scope for long term planning. The potential for adding new dimensions or scenarios to the forecast were also half-finished owing to the high cost and overtime involved. Finding the right agency was also a challenge due to lack of market informed, trained and skilled drug forecasters.
Fore Pharma helped the pharmaceutical company develop a forecast model which minimized the unidentified or the unknown, triangulated the historic and current patients and markets data, and translated into simplified front end dashboard. Fore Pharma used competitive intelligence to minimize the risk involved in the forecast, measuring the parameters known and unknown. Fore Pharma also computed and integrated epidemiological data including disease prevalence, drug treated patients, and drug sales. This helped Fore Pharma’s customer to understand the impact of each metric on other metrics. It also enabled them to understand the market better through expected patient share and peak share. Finally, Fore Pharma simplified the entire model to allow its customer act upon forecasts whenever required. Also, the leadership and country level operations enjoyed the easy understanding of the forecast. Fore Pharma based its new forecast model based on the customer requirements that involved using prevalence, line of treatments, patients on therapy, competitor profile, market events including launch of new therapies, generic erosion, price, and sales revenue estimations. This level of forecast was applied to countries including US, EU5 countries, Japan, Turkey, Scandinavian countries, Australia, and Canada.
Fore Pharma is organized in four teams to quickly perform the forecast. The Fore Pharma epidemiology team provides the prevalence data including incidence and mortality. They model the entire epidemiology section of the forecast. The Fore Pharma competitive intelligence team provides the treatment options, competitor profiles, dosage, patient flow, days of therapy, launch dates, and expiry dates. The Fore Pharma market team provides historic and current market data including sales, volume, exchange rates, compliance, and price data. Finally, the Fore Pharma forecasting team combines the inputs from three teams and triangulates the data to build the final forecasting model.
The customer has now successfully deployed this forecast model in 13 countries. They are now able to add any scenarios faster and easier than before. The transparency, comprehension, and flexibility were better than ever for Fore Pharma’s customer.